Forests can by affected by climate change and there is the possibility of degradation and dieback of forest ecosystems on large areas. Study of this issue is very important to provide proper adaptation strategy for forest sector. The aim of the study is to develop the methodology and methods of modeling of climate change impact on viability of cenopopulations of main forest forming species in Ukraine and evaluation of their vulnerability to climate change according to IPCC scenario A1B at 21st century comparing to climate standard period (1961-1990). By means of Q-GIS climate maps were created. Regional climate models of EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES and E-OBS of ECA&D projects were used. On the base of scales of ecological (climatic) amplitudes (by Didukh Ya.P.) amplitude of tolerance for 6 main forest forming tree species (Pinus silvestris L., Quercus robur L., Fagus silvatica L., Picea abies (L.) Karst., Betula pendula Roth., Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn.) were assessed by climate continentality and humidity (by Ivanov), and crioclimate. It was modeled spatial distribution of areas with different satisfactory conditions of climate (optimal, suboptimal, etc.) for studied species in 1961-1990, present, and forecasted by A1B scenario (IPCC) during 21st century. For all studied main forest forming species climate humidity is the main limiting factor. According to the forecast, a significant reduction in the zone of optimum in 2081-2100 is expected, and the appearance of areas with unfavorable conditions, which increases the probability of changes in zonal vegetation types. In places with unfavorable climatic conditions significant decrease in the productivity of main forest forming species is predicted, gradual loss of their reproductive capacity, violation of seasonal development cycles, reduction of resistance to pests and diseases, and the increased risk of forest fires.
climate change, forest phytocenoses, main forest forming species, tolerance amplitude, satisfactory of environmental conditions, climatic factors